Error bounds on diffusive flow models from noisy microseismic data

We study the effect of the uncertainty in the induced microseismic event locations and origin times on the inverted fluid pressure diffusivity. We use a probabilistic physical model that directly ties fluid pressure in the subsurface during the injection to observations of induced microseismic events at the monitoring receiver array to track the propagation of uncertainty in the forward model and inversion. We use this model to invert for fluid pressure during injection from synthetically modeled noisy travel times and an uncertain velocity model, and to quantify the uncertainty of this inversion. Examples presented provide evidence that reliable inversion of fluid flow parameters from observed microseismic data with uncertainty quantification is possible.